Tuesday, May 11, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,094.99 +.71%
NASDAQ 1,928.90 +1.73%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.08%
Nanotechnology +2.86%
Internet +2.79%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Services -.04%
Drugs -.38%
Tobacco -.68%

Other
Crude Oil 39.30 +.95%
Natural Gas 6.26 +1.31%
Gold 375.40 -.87%
Base Metals 101.22 +1.64%
U.S. Dollar 91.93 +.40%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.76% -.65%
VIX 18.16 -8.14%
Put/Call 1.32 +5.60%
NYSE Arms 1.04 +55.22%

Market Movers
LTON +39.37% after substantially beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q guidance.
SBL +15.9% after beating 1Q estimates and multiple upgrades.
GIVN +13.18% after saying a unit of JNJ will market a version for the esophagus of its "camera-in-a-capsule" used to diagnose ailments of the small intestine.
NFLX +7.7% after CSFB upgrade to Outperform, target $43.
ANPI -4.77% after disappointing 1Q estimates.
EDS -7.93% after saying it may lower dividend and issue stock to keep credit rating.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AVP, BAX and PG. GS upgraded IP to Outperform. GS reiterated Underperform on LSI. DIS raised to Buy at UBS, target $30. WM raised to Buy at UBS, target $45. DJ raised to Buy at Citi SmithBarney, target $64. NVTL rated Outperform at Thomas Weisel. MER raised to Buy at Bank of America, target $65. AGE rated Buy at Bank of America, target $46. SCH rated Buy at Bank of America, target $13. ATK raised to Outperform at CSFB, target $68. PSUN cut to Underweight at Prudential, target $19. NSM raised to Overweight at Lehman, target $49.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rising mid-day on strength in technology shares and falling interest rates. The U.S. economic recovery is strong enough to withstand the increase in energy prices Dallas Fed President McTeer wrote in a Wall Street Journal commentary. Support is growing among health insurers, state officials and pharmacy chains for the legalization of prescription-drug imports from pharmacies in Canada and other countries, the New York Times said. The OECD said it now expects global growth to reach 3.4% this year, up from a prior forecast of 3.0%, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. economy will expand 4.7% this year, which would be the fastest pace in two decades, up from an earlier prediction of 4.2% growth, the OECD said. Procter & Gamble bought the remaining 20% stake in its China venture for $1.8B, allowing the company to speed its expansion into the fast-growing Chinese market. Intel and Texas Instruments have increased inventories to their highest levels since 2001 in a bet that spending on electronics will rise, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is up today as my new tech, Chinese and basic material longs are rising substantially. I added a few new internet, biotech and networking longs this morning, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 100% net long. I expect stocks to rise into the close as shorts take profits and investors bargain-hunt ahead of Cisco's earnings report. The continuing high Put/Call reading also bodes well for afternoon strength.

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