Thursday, May 13, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,096.44 -.08%
NASDAQ 1,926.03 +.02%


Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +1.51%
Airlines +1.23%
Papers +1.09%

Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -1.22%
Gaming -1.32%
Iron/Steel -1.59%

Other
Crude Oil 41.02 -.15%
Natural Gas 6.48 -.05%
Gold 375.00 +.03%
Base Metals 101.58 -1.03%
U.S. Dollar 92.01 +.79%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.86% +1.06%
VIX 18.86 +3.97%
Put/Call .91 -19.14%
NYSE Arms .99 +2.06%

After-hours Movers
BEAS -14.66% after missing 1Q revenue estimates.
DELL -2.99% after meeting 1Q estimates and keeping 2Q forecast unchanged.
ADIC -25.52% after missing 2Q estimates.

Recommendations
Bank of America upgraded CDX to Buy.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed Thursday as rising interest rates and energy prices offset strength in technology and cyclical shares. After the close, Dell said first-quarter revenue rose 21% to a record $11.5 billion, exceeding expectations. Dell's CFO said corporate spending is the best in almost 4 years and that rising memory prices hurt gross margins, Bloomberg reported. United Nations' inspectors say they may have found evidence Iran sought to secretly refine uranium to a purity that could be used in nuclear weapons, Agence France-Presse reported. Verizon is preparing to seek cable-tv franchises in parts of Texas and eight other states, including California, Business Week reported. Raytheon said it settled a class action lawsuit from 1999 alleging the company misled investors, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio gained today as my tech, biotech and security longs rose and retail shorts fell. I did not trade and the Portfolio remains 125% net long. I will closely monitor the market's reaction tomorrow to Dell's earnings report, a likely higher-than-expected CPI report and a probable lower-than-expected Consumer Confidence reading. A slightly lower-to-neutral day would be a positive for the Bulls, while another big down day will show investor psychology remains negative and the Bears are still in control. An unexpectedly strong rally tomorrow would be very positive for the Bulls.

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