Thursday, September 01, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Economic Concerns and Higher Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,221.28 +.08%
DJIA 10,460.03 -.21%
NASDAQ 2,147.31 -.22%
Russell 2000 666.70 +.02%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,203.18 +.03%
S&P Barra Growth 583.61 -.13%
S&P Barra Value 632.80 +.18%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 580.53 -.25%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 736.01 -.02%
Morgan Stanley Technology 495.91 -.18%
Transports 3,665.92 -.41%
Utilities 415.76 +2.04%
Put/Call .88 +10.0%
NYSE Arms 1.29 +64.11%
Volatility(VIX) 13.15 +4.13%
ISE Sentiment 181.00 +35.07%
US Dollar 86.65 -1.06%
CRB 334.43 +1.52%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.69.00 +.09%
Unleaded Gasoline 235.00 +4.20%
Natural Gas 11.56 +.77%
Heating Oil 214.00 +3.06%
Gold 446.50 +1.92%
Base Metals 130.34 +.74%
Copper 164.80 +1.73%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.01% +.05%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.25%
Steel +2.49%
Utilities +2.05%

Lagging Sectors
Retail -1.87%
Restaurants -1.97%
Airlines -4.88%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Storage and Financial longs and Semiconductor shorts. I covered some of my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral given the disappointing economic reports and rise in energy prices. The AAII % Bulls fell to 31.76% this week from 36.14% the prior week; this reading is at below-average levels. Likewise, the % Bears rose to 37.65% from 31.33% the prior week; this is back to above-average levels. Sentiment will likely become more depressed next week. I expect US stocks to trade mixed from current levels into the close as worries over economic growth offset short-covering.

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