Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Strong Corporate Earnings

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Biotech longs and Internet longs. I exited the remainder of my IWM and QQQQ shorts and an energy short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Earnings for the S&P 500 are coming in 13.3% above year-ago levels. This would make the first quarter the 15th straight of double digit profit gains, the best streak since record keeping began in 1936. The S&P 500 P/E has contracted relentlessly during this streak. I continue to believe that P/E multiple expansion will occur later this year, helping propel the S&P 500 to around a 15% total return for the year. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering.

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