Monday, April 10, 2006

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking as Oil Rises

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs, Networking longs and Energy-related shorts. I added to my (QQQQ) and (IWM) shorts today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is about average. The Saudi Tadawul Index is plunging over 8% today, its biggest one day drop ever. Saudi shares are still trading at around 40x estimated earnings. I continue to believe the mania for emerging market stocks, which is mainly the result of record commodity speculation, will end badly. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as rising energy prices offsets short-covering.

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