Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Stocks Rise Most in a Year as Investors See End to Fed Rate Hikes

Indices
S&P 500 1,307.65 +1.74%
DJIA 11,268.77 +1.76%
NASDAQ 2,356.14 +1.95%
Russell 2000 769.81 +2.71%
Wilshire 5000 13,231.40 +1.78%
S&P Barra Growth 611.49 +1.52%
S&P Barra Value 693.50 +1.96%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 603.27 +1.24%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 848.94 +2.52%
Morgan Stanley Technology 555.24 +1.60%
Transports 4,700.10 +2.48%
Utilities 392.08 +2.41%
Put/Call .68 -12.82%
NYSE Arms .39 -62.0%
Volatility(VIX) 11.40 -9.38%
ISE Sentiment 136.00 -27.66%
US Dollar 88.21 -.49%
CRB 354.89 +1.85%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 71.08 -.38%
Unleaded Gasoline 221.00 -.63%
Natural Gas 7.95 -.72%
Heating Oil 204.50 -.28%
Gold 624.70 +.22%
Base Metals 206.20 +4.52%
Copper 298.45 +.45%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.98% -.41%

Leading Sectors
Steel +4.02%
Homebuilders +3.54%
Semis +3.4%

Lagging Sectors
Restaurants +.61%
HMOs +.12%
Gaming -.15%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated TRAD Buy, target $17.50.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Most Federal Reserve policy makers considered the end of their interest rate increases “was likely to be near,” while also citing the need for vigilance against inflation, minutes of their March meeting showed.
- US Treasuries rose as the minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting on monetary policy boosted speculation the central bank will lift interest rates only once more.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) said first-quarter profit rose 42% as sales surged in India and China.
- International Business Machines(IBM) said first-quarter profit gained 22%.
- Amgen Inc.(AMGN) said first-quarter profit rose 17% as more doctors prescribed the Aranesp cancer drug.
- First quarter sales at Motorola(MOT) rose 23% on demand for high-end models in the US and Europe.
- Yahoo!(YHOO) said first-quarter profit rose 16% as users bought more display advertisements.

Guardian:
- Spending on Internet advertising in the UK in the first three months of 2006 was the highest in two years.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Networking longs, Computer longs, Medical longs and Retail longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was very bullish. Considering oil hit an all-time high and long-term rates only fell 3 basis points today’s performance was even more impressive. The S&P 500 forward P/E is still a reasonable 15.5. This will likely decline further over the next few weeks as earnings exceed estimates and stock tread water before another push higher.

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