Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher after Mid-day Profit-taking

Indices
S&P 1,298.83 +.10%
DJIA 11,339.84 -.05%
NASDAQ 2,150.02 +.11%
Russell 2000 707.76 +.34%
Wilshire 5000 12,975.50 +.12%
S&P Barra Growth 601.24 +.10%
S&P Barra Value 695.79 +.10%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 630.37 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 794.46 +.21%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.79 +.31%
Transports 4,302.24 +.13%
Utilities 441.93 +.73%
Put/Call 1.16 -1.69%
NYSE Arms .98 -25.23%
Volatility(VIX) 12.18 -.33%
ISE Sentiment 58.0 -28.40%
US Dollar 85.17 +.64%
CRB 336.67 +.35%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 72.63 +.25%
Unleaded Gasoline 194.00 +.18%
Natural Gas 6.98 +5.37%
Heating Oil 203.75 +.24%
Gold 632.80 -.19%
Base Metals 232.76 +.53%
Copper 346.00 -.52%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.80% -.04%

Leading Sectors
Papers +1.35%
Homebuilders +1.0%
Internet +.93%

Lagging Sectors
Retail -.51%
Restaurants -.59%
Insurance -.69%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:
- Rated (FPL) Buy, target $52.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Medtronic(MDT) said its net income rose 87% in the fiscal first quarter.
- National Semi(NSM) cut its revenue forecast because of lower-than-expected sales to mobile-phone customers.
- Exxon Mobil(XOM) CEO Tillerson wants to expand the company’s oil business in Russia, the world’s biggest crude producer and home of the largest natural-gas reserves on earth.
- The euro dropped the most in a month against the dollar after investor confidence in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, fell to the lowest since 2001.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Retail longs and Computer longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was slightly positive today as the advance/decline line finished modestly higher, most sectors rose and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was neutral. The Johnson Redbook retail same-store sales index rose 3.2% year over year last week vs. a 3.2% rise the prior week. The long-term average is a gain of around 2.8%. I still see little evidence that a significant decline in consumer spending is beginning, even as investors continue to price this into stocks. I still expect the back-to-school selling season to exceed lowered expectations. Investors will likely soon begin to question their imminent consumer collapse thesis. Retail sales should stabilize around average levels over the intermediate term.

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