Friday, August 18, 2006

Stocks Mostly Lower into the Afternoon on Healthy Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on looses in my Commodity shorts and Internet longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, most sectors are falling and volume is below average. The CRB Index is poised to close below its 50-week moving average for the first time during its entire uptrend that began in October 2001. This is significant. Commodities have been the primary source of inflationary fears. This is likely the main reason why the 10-year Treasury note, the best longer-term predictor of inflation, continues to rally. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower long-term rates and bargain-hunting.

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