Thursday, August 17, 2006

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher on Continuing Energy Price Decline

Indices
S&P 500 1,297.48 +.16%
DJIA 11,334.96 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,157.61 +.38%
Russell 2000 710.78 +.48%
Wilshire 5000 12,970.29 +.16%
S&P Barra Growth 600.19 +.22%
S&P Barra Value 695.55 +.10%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 630.39 -.01%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 802.96 -.29%
Morgan Stanley Technology 499.65 +.31%
Transports 4,403.38 -.40%
Utilities 432.59 -.32%
Put/Call .75 unch.
NYSE Arms .98 +19.38%
Volatility(VIX) 12.24 -1.37%
ISE Sentiment 104.0 -28.28%
US Dollar 85.04 +.19%
CRB 331.69 -1.73%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 70.06 -2.55%
Unleaded Gasoline 193.16 -2.35%
Natural Gas 6.69 -1.14%
Heating Oil 196.50 -2.57%
Gold 623.60 -.27%
Base Metals 223.03 -3.85%
Copper 331.60 +.03%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.86% +.08%

Leading Sectors
I-Banks +1.40%
Restaurants +1.28%
Software +1.27%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -1.76%
Steel -1.84%
Gold & Silver -2.04%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (MORN) Buy, target $42.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China and Russia said they would oppose a US and British bid to send almost 21,000 UN troops to the Darfur region of Sudan because the government in Khartoum rejects the mission.
- Time Warner(TWX) said it will restate financial results back to 2000 after an independent examiner found improper accounting related to advertising revenue.
- Fed Chairman Bernanke’s gamble that he can suspend interest rate increases on the chance inflation will recede is showing signs of paying off.
- A federal judge ruled that Altria’s(MO) Philip Morris USA and other US cigarette makers violated anti-racketeering laws by marketing low-tar cigarettes as healthier alternatives to full-flavored brands.
- Dell(DELL) reported a slump in second-quarter profit after slashing prices and said the SEC is investigating its accounting.

Valor Economico:
- The Sao Paulo Stock Exchange picked Goldman Sachs Group(GS) to manage its IPO.

Sueddeutsche Zeitung:
- Partly-assembled suitcase bombs found in Germany on a train near Dortmund and at Koblenz rail station on July 31 were probably planted by terrorists.

AP:
- Two bottles of liquid in luggage that prompted authorities to evacuate a West Virginia airport terminal tested positive for explosives.

Chronicle of Charity:
- President Bush today signed into law a bill designed to stimulate charitable giving and curb abuses.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Networking longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive again today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was bullish. The bears were unable to gain downside traction despite the sell-off in commodity stocks and terrorism fears. This is a positive as most rotations are accompanied by broad market weakness. The 10-year held recent gains despite mixed talk from Fisher and a strong Philly Fed. The ISE Sentiment Index plunged 25% today to 109, a depressed level, which is also a positive. I suspect the weakness in commodities will soon be accompanied by another round of "imminent recession" talk. I strongly disagree with this assessment of why commodities are falling.

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