Sunday, October 01, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its best third quarter performance since 1995, led by telecom and technology shares.
- US Treasuries had their biggest quarterly gain in four years as the Fed paused.
- The US dollar rose the most against the yen this quarter since the final three months of 2005 as sustained US economic growth diminished speculation the Fed will cut borrowing costs before year-end.
- Congress passed legislation that tightens security at US ports, requiring radiation monitors at the 22 largest ports by the end of next year.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) said September same-store-sales in the US rose about 1.8% versus estimates of a 1-3% increase.
- Amaranth Advisors LLC suspended redemptions in order to sell off its remaining assets after losses at its two main hedge funds continued in the past two weeks.
- The NYSE was up and running Saturday even though no shares changed hands as tests were conducted on a new electronic trading system designed to make the world’s biggest equity market more competitive.
- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva led challenger Geraldo Alckmin in an early count of ballots from today’s election and was about 1 percentage point short of avoiding a run-off.
- Confidence among Japan’s largest manufacturers unexpectedly rose in September and companies said they plan to increase spending.
- Shares of Sony Corp.(SNE) fell on concern costs for a widening recall of its batteries used in notebook computers may be more than the company initially estimated.
- Natural gas may fall in NY for a sixth week, the longest slide in more than five years, as mild weather cuts demand and allows inventories to climb even higher, according to a survey by Bloomberg.
- Iran considers international oil prices too low and said it will support “any” OPEC” measure that helps raise them.
- Latin American bonds are posting their biggest gains in more than a year as inflation in Mexico and Brazil, which topped 6,800% in April 1990, falls below US levels.

Wall Street Journal:
- David Tepper, who overseas $4.5 billion hedge fund Appaloosa Management LP, is close to an agreement to invest billions in Delphi Corp. and may control a third of the bankrupt auto-parts maker.

Barron’s:
- US airlines may report a 9% increase in revenue per available seat per mile this year on lower cost structures, restrained capacity growth and a robust economy.

NY Times:
- YouTube Inc., the video-sharing Web site, plans to replicate its deal to share advertising revenue with Warner Music Group to appease copyright challenges from studios and recording companies.
- Medicare drug insurers will offer US beneficiaries more options next year for the elderly and disabled, both in terms of the plans and the number of medicines covered.

LA Times:
- California Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a commanding 50% to 33% lead over Democrat Phil Angelides in the race for governor of the most-populous US state.

NY Post:
- Billionaire Investor Eddie Lampert, chairman of Sears Holdings(SHLD), is ready to continue the retailer’s winning stock performance-by turning the retail chair into a Berkshire Hathaway-type investment vehicle.

Economist:
- While Google(GOOG) and small internet firms race ahead, Yahoo!(YHOO) seems to be standing still.

Financial Times:
- Morgan Stanley is expected to announce today it’s obtained a Chinese commercial banking license, trumping its US bank rivals, citing the bank’s CEO Mack.

Times of London:
- Man Group Plc clients have lost about $280 million from the implosion of US hedge fund manager Amaranth Advisors LLC.
- Microsoft’s(MSFT) next operating system may be in danger of delay as the company conducts its largest ever public testing program.

Liberation:
- The Lebanese army won’t seek to disarm Hezbollah militia as Israel completes its withdrawal from southern Lebanon, President Emile Lahoud said. “You would be a traitor if you wanted to take arms from the resistance” of Hezbollah, Lahoud said.

Finanz und Wirtschaft:
- BASF AG board member John Feldmann expects the price of oil to fall to $35/bbl. by 2009 as more production capacity comes on stream.

Nihon Keizai:
- Mizuho Trust & Banking, Sumitomo Trust & Banking and Resona Holdings group are among banks that may be affected by the loss of more than $6 billion at US hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC.

NHK Television:
- The European Union has started studying possible sanctions against North Korea for the refusal to return to six-government talks on its nuclear program.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (AAPL) and (PETM).

Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (GILD), target $77.
- August SIA data for microprocessors is supportive of our recent estimate increases for Intel(INTC) and (AMD) and indicates further upside potential exists; SIA data has an 89% correlation to Intel and AMD revenues.

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.12%
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
- (PCU) 2-for-1
- (LIHR) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Construction Spending for August is estimated to fall .4% versus a 1.2% decline in July.
- ISM Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 53.7 versus a reading of 54.5 in August.
- ISM Prices Paid for September is estimated to fall to 68.0 versus a reading of 73.0 in August.
- Pending Home Sales for August are estimated to rise .2% versus a 7.0% decline in July.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, boosted by financial and automaking shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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