Wednesday, April 18, 2007

DJIA at Record High into Final Hour, Boosted by Financials, Homebuilders and Semis

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, I-banking longs and Internet longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mildly negative as the advance/decline line is mildly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. While the bears would have you believe that today's action is negative, I see a number of sectors (seven) with meaningful gains ranging from 1.4% to 5.5%, notwithstanding the market's near-term overbought state. Also, the Value Line Geometric Index is up a very strong 6.5% year-to-date, and the environment remains excellent for stockpickers. Google (GOOG) has surged 5 points over the last 2 hours on volume. So far, I haven't seen any new news to account for the move. I have always wondered why the knee-jerk reaction is always to sell Google every time its chief competition stumbles. Google is still my largest long position. This also bodes well for tech. The tech sector is now flat on the day. While tech has some near-term issues, I expect the sector to ignite in the second-half of the year. This is likely one of the reasons for the muted reaction to recent "poor" earnings reports. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on rising earnings optimism, lower long-term rates and short-covering.

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