Monday, April 16, 2007

Stocks Finish Sharply Higher, Led by Financials, on Strong Earnings and Buyout Activity

Indices
S&P 500 1,468.47 +1.08%
DJIA 12,720.46 +.86%
NASDAQ 2,518.33 +1.06%
Russell 2000 831.44 +1.47%
Wilshire 5000 14,838.65 +1.06%
Russell 1000 Growth 579.05 +1.39%
Russell 1000 Value 847.46 +1.09%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 723.50 +.78%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 987.88 +1.06%
Morgan Stanley Technology 582.59 +1.07%
Transports 5,104.10 +1.37%
Utilities 512.63 +.47%
MSCI Emerging Markets 123.51 +1.10%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .82 -13.68%
NYSE Arms .64 -20.28%
Volatility(VIX) 11.98 -1.80%
ISE Sentiment 103.0 -15.57%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.62 -.02%
Reformulated Gasoline 212.71 -2.41%
Natural Gas 7.47 -4.24%
Heating Oil 185.95 -2.18%
Gold 694.50 +.67%
Base Metals 271.35 +1.10%
Copper 355.50 +.54%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.73% -3 basis points
US Dollar 82.11 -.01%
CRB Index 314.76 -1.0%

Leading Sectors
I-Banks +3.30%
Banks +1.96%
Alternative Energy +1.70%

Lagging Sectors
REITs +.24%
Hospitals +.16%
Gaming -.08%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
CIBC:
- Rated (GRMN) Sector Outperformer.
- Rated (ITRN) Sector Outperformer.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A gunman carried out the deadliest shooting rampage in US history today, killed at least 32 students and faculty at Virginia Tech University before turning the gun on himself. Another 28 people were hospitalized with gunshot wounds and other injuries. Neither the gunman’s identity or motive have been determined.
- The S&P 500 surged to its highest in more than six years, catapulted by higher-than-expected bank and drug company earnings and the $25 billion takeover of student-loan provider SLM Corp.(SLM).
- The yen may extend its decline against the euro and the dollar before a government report that economists forecast will show Japanese consumer confidence fell last month.
- Bear Stearns’(BSC) private equity unit agreed to buy Universal Hospital Services for $712 million. The company helps hospitals manage medical equipment and improve productivity of nurses.
- Pat Vredevoogd Combs, president of the National Association of Realtors, says the “worst is over” for the US housing market.
- The US may ease ethanol import duties by the end of next year, helping Brazilian producers gain access to markets in the world’s largest consumer of the fuel, Brazil’s top ethanol official said today.
- Natural gas fell 3.5%, the most in two months, as forecasters said a trend of below-average temperatures would ease later this week, while supplies remain almost 30% above the five-year average for this time of the year.
- Great Plains Energy’s(GXP) Kansas City utility is seeking bids for up to 400 megawatts of electricity generated from by wind by 2012 to increase supplies from renewable energy sources.
- Exxon Mobil’s(XOM) refinery in Torrance, California, is restarting units after completing two months of “maintenance.”
- Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush called on the US to end a tariff on Brazilian ethanol to help boost distribution of the crop-based fuel and foster a world market for it.
- Black & Decker(BDK), the biggest US maker of power tools, said first quarter profit exceeded its forecast on an increase in orders. The stock surged 7% after-hours.

Women’s Wear Daily:
- Neiman Marcus Group(NM/G) is considering an IPO of shares as early as the summer.

Reuters:
- Nigeria plans to resume oil production from the Forcados oil fields in the western Niger delta by the end of this month. Nigeria has scheduled 5 million barrels of oil for export in June.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- Magna International, Canada’s largest autoparts maker, may be in advanced talks with DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) about the potential acquisition of its Chrysler unit.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Telecom longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs and Retail longs. I didn’t trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were about average into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish. The S&P 500 is now near a seven-year high. I-banks were today's outstanding performers, with the Broker/Dealer Index(XBD) rising 3.3%. Despite the market's strong showing, the airwaves were once again filled with gloom and doom about housing today. Meanwhile, the August housing price futures rose again to $214,800. Gasoline futures fell almost 3% today and the crack spread, while still extraordinarily elevated, fell 10%. I continue to believe gasoline has been propping up the whole energy complex. While today's headline gains were impressive, the sharp gains in heavily shorted stocks are especially noteworthy. I suspect stocks will open modestly lower on a knee-jerk reaction to tomorrow morning's economic data; however, losses will likely proved short-lived as record shorts and underinvested bulls will likely use any near-term weakness to cover and buy.

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