Tuesday, April 17, 2007

DJIA Close to Another Record on Poistive Earnings and Economic Reports

Indices

S&P 500 1,471.48 +.20%

DJIA 12,773.04 +.41%

NASDAQ 2,516.95 -.05%

Russell 2000 828.96 -.30%

Wilshire 5000 14,858.68 +.13%

Russell 1000 Growth 581.05 +.35%

Russell 1000 Value 847.90 +.05%

Morgan Stanley Consumer 727.38 +.54%

Morgan Stanley Cyclical 986.05 -.19%

Morgan Stanley Technology 583.73 +.20%

Transports 5,082.22 -.43%

Utilities 516.72 +.80%

MSCI Emerging Markets 123.29 -.17%

Sentiment/Internals

Total Put/Call .90 +9.76%

NYSE Arms .93 +45.11%

Volatility(VIX) 12.14 +1.34%

ISE Sentiment 151.0 +46.6%

Futures Spot Prices

Crude Oil 63.14 -.74%

Reformulated Gasoline 205.70 -2.77%

Natural Gas 7.44 -1.09%

Heating Oil 180.50 -2.92%

Gold 691.20 -.49%

Base Metals 268.90 -.90%

Copper 366.55 +3.49%

Economy

10-year US Treasury Yield 4.68% -5 basis points

US Dollar 81.79 -.33%

CRB Index 313.20 -.50%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +1.53%
REITs +1.29%
Restaurants +.76%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -1.24%
I-Banking -1.48%
Coal -1.67%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Better-than-expected economic and earnings reports enabled the DJIA to close within 14 points of a record.
- NY harbor wholesale gasoline fell 3.5%, the biggest drop in more than two months, and its premium to NYMEX futures narrowed, on signs imports may rise in the coming weeks.
- Yahoo!’s(YHOO) profit and sale trailed analysts’ estimates in the first quarter after a new advertising program failed to generate the revenue gain some investors were expecting. The stock fell 6.3% after-hours.
- Intl. Business Machines(IBM) said first-quarter profit increased 8% because of new contracts and software acquisitions. The stock is down slightly after-hours.
- Intel Corp.(INTC) said first quarter-profit rose 19% after it paid less in taxes and stemmed a slide in revenue. The stock is just slightly higher after-hours on the report.
- US Treasuries rose the most in more than a month after a government report showed the pace of inflation rose less than economists expected in March.
- Evergreen Solar(ESLR) announced expansion plans and the signing of an agreement to secure supplies of polysilicon. The stock rose 4.5% after-hours.
- Ethanol in Chicago fell a third straight day as gas and corn futures declined.
- Linear Tech(LLTC) announced revenue for its quarterly period ended April 1 was $255.0 million, a decrease of 9%. The stock soared 9% after-hours.
- Domino’s Pizza(DPZ) announced today that it had completed its recapitalization as planned. The stock rose 9% after-hours.
- Washington Mutual(WM) said first-quarter profit dropped 20%. The stock rose 3% after-hours.
- Seagate Technology(STX) said third-quarter profit fell 23% and gave a forecast for the current period that trailed analysts’ estimates. The stock fell 5% after-hours.

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BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Telecom longs and Computer longs. I didn’t trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was mildly negative today as the advance/decline line finished mildly lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were about average into the close. Today's overall market action was neutral. The 10-year yield and oil are at session lows. The gasoline crack spread fell another 8% but remains very elevated. While we have heard about food inflation most of the day, the Goldman Agricultural Commodity Index peaked in February and has declined -9.1% since. Corn fell another 3% today and appears poised to take out its recent low. Housing-related stocks paced today's gainers. I would classify today's overall action as a healthy consolidation of yesterday's gains. I suspect the market will react positively to tonight's earnings, unless they are "bad," which I do not expect.

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