Monday, April 30, 2007

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking, Mixed Economic Data

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Retail longs, Semi longs and Medical longs. I added to my Under Armour(UA) long and to an existing short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is below average. I added a bit to my Under Armour (UA) long ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report. Bearishness is high on the stock ahead of the report. Under Armour's open interest put/call is currently 2.09, just off record highs of 2.50 set last week. As well, short interest is a record 8.65 million shares, or 35% of the float. Under Armour is the type of stock that should flourish in the current macro environment. I expect the stock to rise tomorrow, notwithstanding any initial morning weakness related to profit-taking. The AAII percentage of Bulls fell 16.4%, to 39.2%, and the AAII percentage of Bears soared 28.3%, to 37.9% last week. These readings came as the DJIA was blowing through another record high, which is remarkable. Over the weekend, I expected to see quite a few headlines regarding the piercing of the 13,000 barrier on the Dow, instead the headlines were overwhelmingly negative and focused on how "poorly" the U.S. economy was performing. As well, many suggested that only large U.S. companies with substantial emerging market exposure are doing well, yet many U.S .small-caps and most mid caps continue to outperform large caps, and the cumulative advance-decline line is at a record high. I continue to believe that overall investment sentiment regarding U.S. stocks has never been worse in history with stocks up this much and the DJIA at a record high. There is still a high wall of worry for stocks to climb substantially from current levels.

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