Bloomberg:
- China Export Gains Understated on Fake-Data Distortions: Economy. China is poised to post its first slowdown in export growth in three months, a result that may understate the strength of demand after fake reports inflated figures in the year-earlier period. Growth from last month through April 2014 will be “depressed” because of a high basis for comparison, Credit Agricole CIB says. Overseas shipments probably grew 5.5 percent in September from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg News survey ahead of tomorrow’s customs-administration report in Beijing, down from August’s 7.2 percent and 9.8 percent in September 2012. The comparisons will complicate investors’ ability to gauge the strength of any economic rebound after two manufacturing gauges trailed projections in September, limiting a recovery that began earlier in the quarter. Additional skepticism over trade figures builds on broader questions about the quality of Chinese data from gross domestic product to jobs.
- Asian Stocks Rise as Bond Risk Falls; Won to Copper Gain. Asian stocks rose a fourth day and bond risk in the region fell as U.S. lawmakers continued talks on raising the nation’s debt limit to avoid a default. Industrial metals climbed with emerging-market currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.3 percent by 11:17 a.m. in Tokyo, set for the longest rally in a month.
- Rubber Set for 1st Weekly Gain in 3 as Yen Weakens on Debt Talks. Rubber is heading for the first weekly climb in three as optimism grew that U.S. lawmakers will lift the debt ceiling to avert a default, weakening Japan’s currency and boosting the appeal of yen-based futures. The contract for March delivery rose as much as 2.7 percent to 266.3 yen a kilogram ($2,709 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the highest level since Oct. 1. Futures traded at 265.5 yen at 10:17 a.m. and gained 4.4 percent this week, the first rally since five days through Sept. 20.
- Cameron’s Housing-Market Loan Fix Seen as Bad Policy for Britain. Prime Minister David Cameron’s Help to Buy plan to aid home buyers is the wrong policy for Britain, economists said, adding to criticism of an initiative that was ramped up just this week. Two thirds of 31 economists described the measure as “bad,” according to a Bloomberg News survey published today. The prime minister this month accelerated the second phase of the program, which gives people the chance to buy a home with a down payment of as little as 5 percent.
- Twitter Said to Pay 3.25% Bankers’ Fee for Market Debut. Twitter Inc. is seeking to raise more than $1 billion in an initial public offering and plans to pay bankers a fee of about 3.25 percent, people with knowledge of the matter said.
- Obama, GOP Open Talks Over Temporary Debt Fix. Republicans, President Still Disagree Over Details. President Barack Obama and House Republicans began discussions Thursday on a GOP proposal to extend the nation's borrowing authority for six weeks, marking a new opening in the budget stalemate that risks a U.S. debt crisis.
- U.S. Rethinks How to Release Sensitive Economic Data. Potential Changes Driven From Unease Over High-Speed Trading Firms. Federal officials are discussing changes to how the government releases sensitive economic data, seeking to bring the system in line with fast-moving financial markets. While the talks are preliminary, officials are driven by their growing concern about leaks and their unease that high-speed trading firms can trade on market-moving numbers before other investors, say people familiar with the discussions.
- Strassel: A Crisis of the President's Own Making. Unless Mr. Obama is willing to make a serious deal on spending, he will spend the next three years fighting the same budget wars over and over.
- Andrew Puzder: ObamaCare and the Part-Time Economy. The White House insists that the health-care law has not affected hiring. That's not what the numbers show. There are times when the Obama administration makes statements so disconnected from economic reality that you wonder if any White House official has talked with anyone in business. A case in point: the administration's mantra that ObamaCare's definition of full-time employment as 30 or more hours per week had no effect on employers' hiring practices.
- Deal or no deal? GOP back to drawing board on debt plan after Obama meeting. Republican lawmakers scrambled back to the drawing board late Thursday to modify their plan for a short-term increase in the debt ceiling, after President Obama apparently pushed back on the proposal during a high-stakes White House meeting. The meeting broke up with no deal announced, despite optimism earlier in the day that the two sides might agree. Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid also cast doubt on House Speaker John Boehner's plan. The day ended like it began, with Americans still unsure when the partial government shutdown will end, and the financial markets still uncertain as to whether the country might miss next week's deadline to raise the debt ceiling.
- Report: Obama administration brings chilling effect on journalism. The U.S. government's aggressive prosecution of leaks and efforts to control information are having a chilling effect on journalists and government whistle-blowers, according to a report released Thursday on U.S. press freedoms under the Obama administration. The Committee to Protect Journalists conducted its first examination of U.S. press freedoms amid the Obama administration's unprecedented number of prosecutions of government sources and seizures of journalists' records. Usually the group focuses on advocating for press freedoms abroad.
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
- The debt burden still casts a long shadow over the US and eurozone economies. The US budget crisis may be man-made by the Republicans and Democrats, but it raises concerns about the world economy.
Macquarie:
- Downgraded (NVDA) to Underperform, target $14.
- Asian equity indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.0 -7.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 110.75 -5.5 basis points.
- FTSE-100 futures +.77%.
- S&P 500 futures +.14%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (JPM)/1.29
- (WFC)/.97
- (INFY)/45.64
9:55 am EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for October is estimated to fall to 75.6 versus 77.5 in September.
- None of note
- The Fed's Powell speaking, ECB's Praet speaking, USDA Crop Report and the Canada Unemployment Rate could also impact trading today.
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