Thursday, December 31, 2015

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Global Growth Fears, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Tech/Drug Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.88 +3.41%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.58 -.81%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.38 -.61%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.34 +.66%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 58.0 -22.67%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 +7.07%
  • NYSE Arms .98 -65.83% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.39 +.14%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,703.0 +.62%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.90 -.11%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.28 -3.84%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.61 +2.97%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 358.95 +.68%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.77 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 46.50 +6.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.21 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .16% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 122.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $43.57/Metric Tonne +.35%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.8 -4.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.4 +.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.90 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.58% +2.0 basis points
  • 50.8% chance of next Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 56.3% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -188 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -222 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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