Friday, December 18, 2015

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on China Bubble-Bursting Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Strength, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.7 +9.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.51 -.82%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.38 +.89%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.80 +1.70%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 64.0 -13.51%
  • Total Put/Call .99 +3.13%
  • NYSE Arms 1.71 -45.90
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.25 +.92%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,800.0 +2.77%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.54 +2.24%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.32 -.20%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 74.47 +1.43%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 357.13 +1.45%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.54 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 +3.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 31.0 -4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.25 -2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.31 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% -4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 123.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $40.10/Metric Tonne +1.70%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.9 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.7 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.10 +.3 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50 unch.
  • 67.6% chance of next Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -111 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -140 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -37 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/tech/medical sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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