Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Yen Weakness, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.75 +1.55%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.23 +2.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.89 -1.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.06 -1.60%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +3.31%
  • Total Put/Call .71 -6.58%
  • NYSE Arms .68 -12.15
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.27 -2.70%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 720.0 -2.51%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.18 -7.67%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.64 -3.45%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 48.55 -3.96%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 246.33 -3.24%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.59 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.55 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 38.75 +1.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -43.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.65 +.34%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% unch.
  • Yield Curve 83.0 +6.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $59.38/Metric Tonne +6.65%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.5 +1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.3 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.70 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49% +3.0 basis points
  • 19.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 19.2% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +520 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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