Thursday, July 07, 2016

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising European Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Commodity/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.78 +5.41%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 116.45 -.91%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.19 -.59%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.53 +3.38%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -1.15%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -20.59%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +60.40
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.41 +1.36%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 782.0 -.56%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 117.60 +1.02%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.33 +.78%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 53.93 -1.21%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 271.89 +.84%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.22 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.75 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -43.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.86 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 80.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.07/Metric Tonne -1.54%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.1 +4.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.1 -4.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.90 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.46% -1.0 basis point
  • 4.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 3.9% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +38 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -115 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -52 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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