Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Falling Fed Rate Hike Odds, Yen Weakness, Earnings Optimism, Biotech/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.76 +1.39%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.85 -2.18%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.90 -.18%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +4.44%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -7.69%
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 +51.99
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.53 -1.23%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 763.0 +.51%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.76 -2.52%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.67 +.08%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 49.09 +.42%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 259.76 -.20%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.16 -.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 43.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -50.75 +2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.89 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 79.0 -2.5 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.63/Metric Tonne +.95%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.20 -5.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.1 +5.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.60 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% unch.
  • 26.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 28.0% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +45 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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