Sunday, April 15, 2018

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
  • China's Economy Poised to Brush Off Trump Threats, Debt Campaign. The economy is expected to have tuned out all the background noise and powered ahead in the first quarter. According to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey, growth maintained a 6.8 percent pace, well ahead of a target for about 6.5 percent expansion this year.
  • Asian Stocks Set for Muted Start; Yen Slips.  Asian equities faced a slightly weaker start to the week after a dip in U.S. shares on Friday and the yen slipped as traders largely took the U.S.-led strike on Syria in their stride. Futures on most Asia Pacific stock markets pointed to a marginally lower open on Monday after the S&P 500 Index declined 0.3 percent. The yen declined amid international reaction to the Syrian strike and as polls showed falling support for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government. The dollar edged lower as CFTC data showed hedge funds are the most bearish on the greenback in five years.  
Wall Street Journal:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 -2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.54 -.04%. 
  • FTSE 100 futures +.38%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.56%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.57%.

Earnings of Note
  • (BAC)/.59
  • (SCHW)/.54
  • (JNHT)/1.06
  • (MTB)/2.77
  • (CE)/2.33
  • (NFLX)/.63
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 18.2 versus 22.5 in March.
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in February.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in February.
  • Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in February.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for February is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.6% gain in January.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated at 70.0 versus 70.0 in March.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for February.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, German Wholesale Price report, (CRM) investor meeting and the (BMY) investor event could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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