Thursday, April 05, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Earnings Optimism, Yen Weakness, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -5.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.88 +.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.20 -.85%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.1 -5.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +1.0%
  • Total Put/Call .77 -23.8%
  • NYSE Arms .60 -17.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.18 -2.66%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 464.0 -1.42%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.2 -5.15%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.0 +2.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.97 -2.41%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 132.88 -1.62%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.63 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 62.0 +4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.5 +4.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.96 -.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.71% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 52.5 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.32 USD/Metric Tonne +1.57%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.0 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.50 -7.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.80 -3.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 unch.
  • 79.9% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 81.6% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +301 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +215 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them 
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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