Friday, April 20, 2018

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Trade War Fears, Rising Long-Term Rates, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Transport/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.7 +4.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.69 -.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.18 +1.61%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.42 +.29%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -4.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +4.1%
  • NYSE Arms .72 +4.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.26 +.56%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 413.0 +1.18%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.03 -.03%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.75 +.75 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.94 +.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 140.20 +2.1%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.14 -.1%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.50 unch.
  • TED Spread 55.5 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 -4.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.40 -.48%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.80% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 49.75 +5.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.39 USD/Metric Tonne +.61%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.20 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -90.90 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.1 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +2.0 basis points
  • 90.2% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 90.8% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -38 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/retail/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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