Friday, April 06, 2018

Stocks Plunging into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Less Economic Optimism, Technical Selling, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.34 +12.67%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.76 -.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.23 +.73%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.50 +8.79%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 64.0 +3.0%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +11.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.99 +176.14%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.81 +1.34%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 454.0 -1.84%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.92 +1.12%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.75 +1.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.13 +1.20%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 137.13 +3.17%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.66 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 32.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 61.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.5 +3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.77 -.25%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.71% unch.
  • Yield Curve 50.75 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.09 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.90 -8.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -79.20 -6.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.40 -1.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 -2.0 basis points
  • 78.0% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 79.8% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -152 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -58 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/industrial/medical/biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging markets shorts 
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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