Monday, April 30, 2018

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Geopolitical Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Telecom/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.7 +2.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.45 -.21%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.30 -.12%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.81 +.59%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 -8.05%
  • Total Put/Call .88 +1.15%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 +1.87%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.76 +1.11%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 399.0 -1.40%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.0 +.97%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.50 +5.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.04 +.84%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 142.39 +1.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.39 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 55.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.5 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.28 -.42%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.8% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 45.5 -2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.63 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.8 -4.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -77.50 +5.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.2 -5.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1.0 basis point
  • 92.7% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 93.2% chance at August 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +11  open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +90 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -42 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/medical/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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