Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.69 -4.94%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.11 +.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.81 -2.29%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.94 -2.73%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 +38.8%
  • Total Put/Call .86 +3.61%
  • NYSE Arms 1.02 +7.15%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.95 +1.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 395.0 -.35%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.89 -1.82%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 217.25 -1.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.34 -2.56%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 188.90 -2.27%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.80 -.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 40.50 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 +3.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.62 +.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.93% unch.
  • Yield Curve 36.75 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 64.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.10 -1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -86.30 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.0 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 +1.0 basis point
  • 82.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 83.4% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -55 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -68 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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