Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Geopolitical Concerns, Stable Long-Term Rates, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.0 -2.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.90 -.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.56 -.31%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.08 +.47%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 155.0 +53.5%
  • Total Put/Call .68 -6.9%
  • NYSE Arms .86 +7.21%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.08 -1.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 378.0 +.04%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.17 +.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 237.0 +2.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.60 -2.74%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 182.40 +1.87%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.81 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.75 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 +2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.59 -.42%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.92% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 42.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.41 USD/Metric Tonne -.67%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.20 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -99.80 -1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.70 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at August 1 meeting, 100.0% chance at September 26 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -48 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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