Friday, June 15, 2018

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Mueller Investigation Concerns, Oil Decline, Commodity/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.36 +1.98%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.64 +.28%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.92 +3.01%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.58 +2.07%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -4.0%
  • Total Put/Call .91 +7.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 -3.17%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.66 -1.82%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 382.0 +1.23%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.77 +1.19%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 220.75 -10.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.96 +1.89%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 189.97 +.47%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.86 -.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 41.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.97 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.93% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 37.0 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.86 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.10 -1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -97.20 +1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.10 -.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 -1.0 basis point
  • 84.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 85.4% chance at November 8th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -49 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -92 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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