Friday, November 30, 2018

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Less China Trade Deal Pessimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Optimism, Transport/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.25 +2.45%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.65 -.56%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.16 +.59%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.79 +1.37%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 184.0 +29.6%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -13.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.16 -4.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.95 +1.42%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 672.0 -.93%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.68 +1.56%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 290.0 +1.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.78 -3.83%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.85 -.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.41 +.52%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.75 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -10.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.21 -.48%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.36% unch.
  • Yield Curve 20.0 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.14 USD/Metric Tonne +.40%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.90 -6.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.4 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.99 unch.
  • 79.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 90.0% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +60 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +79 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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