Monday, November 19, 2018

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Global Growth Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Medical Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.0 +10.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.95 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.08 +.20%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.04 +6.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -40.3%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -1.08%
  • NYSE Arms .79 -13.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.70 +2.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 665.0 +1.28%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.33 +2.49%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 322.5 +10.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.26 +1.28%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.0 +2.97%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.67 -.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 30.75 +4.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.0 +4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.36 +.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.35% unch.
  • Yield Curve 27.25 +.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 72.39 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.80 -5.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -55.10 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.20 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 69.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 30th meeting, 85.8% chance at March 20th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -216 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical/tech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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