Thursday, November 01, 2018

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Trade War Fears, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.4 -8.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.67 +.56%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.15 -.98%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.63 -5.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +12.79%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -23.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.27 +33.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.74 -1.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 522.0 -.27%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.23 -2.91%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 298.25 -6.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.38 -.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 200.06 -2.85%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.55 -.41%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 22.25 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.75 +3.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.72 +.89%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.32% unch.
  • Yield Curve 29.0 +.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 71.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.58%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index .2 -5.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.1 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.20 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03-3.0 basis points
  • 72.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 73.7% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +22 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +402 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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