Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Brexit Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Biotech/Commodity Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -4.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.62 +.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.09 -.61%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.73 -4.08%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 +11.0%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +21.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.10 +61.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.37 -2.13%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 528.0 -1.55%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.72 -1.48%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 248.5 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.73 -2.41%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 169.22 -.20%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 159.54 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.25 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.60 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.43% unch.
  • Yield Curve 15.25 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 83.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.67%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -39.40 -7.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.10 +4.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.0 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 -1.0 basis point
  • .8% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, .7% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -188 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +92 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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