Monday, March 11, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Global Growth Fears, China Trade Deal Hopes, Oil Gain, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.7 -8.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.91 +.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.16 -.85%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.84 -1.95%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 +5.19%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -13.4%
  • NYSE Arms .72 -30.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.95 -4.45%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 537.0 +1.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.81 -4.73%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 249.25 +5.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.21 -2.03%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 169.41 -3.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 159.35 +.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.44 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.43% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 16.5 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 81.27 USD/Metric Tonne +.42%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.90 +10.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.0 +2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.50 -1.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 +1.0 basis point
  • .8% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, .7% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +40 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +148 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/biotech/tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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