Monday, March 25, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, China Trade Deal Worries, Profit-Taking, Tech/Healthcare Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.95 +2.85%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.40 +.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.55 +1.91%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.33 +2.66%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 54.0 -8.47%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -1.12%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 -30.86%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.92 +2.35%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 522.0 +.48%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.30 +1.29%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 253.0 +6.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.45 +.56%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 177.58 -.86%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 160.63 +.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.0 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.50 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.63 +.60%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.44% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 16.25 +3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 84.45 USD/Metric Tonne +.90%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.90 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.90 +6.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.0 +1.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 -3.0 basis points
  • 30.8% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 37.4% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -42 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/retail/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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