Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on China Stimulus Hopes, Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Telecom/Commodity Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.8 -1.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.37 +.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.80 -1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.77 -.05%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 +45
  • Total Put/Call .66 -23.3%
  • NYSE Arms .84 -39.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.75 -1.14%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 647.0 +3.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 48.81 -1.58%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 -.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 50.64 -2.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 192.70 -.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.85 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.0 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.25 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.15 +.37%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% unch.
  • Yield Curve .18 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 83.80 USD/Metric Tonne +4.41%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.20 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.4 -.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.1 +1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 unch.
  • 24.9% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 43.2% chance of cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +209 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/retail/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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