Tuesday, February 04, 2020

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Coronavirus Fears, Rising Trump Re-Election Odds, US Economic Data, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.0 -10.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.45 +.57%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.55 -2.8%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.8 -8.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 77.0 +3
  • Total Put/Call .81 +11.0%
  • NYSE Arms .61 -42.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.21 -5.61%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 642.0 -.73%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.11 -5.74%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 -4.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 54.18 -4.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 186.69 -3.94%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.01 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.25 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.56 +.35%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .17 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.70 USD/Metric Tonne +4.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.40 +3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.30 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.6 +.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 +3.0 basis points
  • 24.8% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 43.0% chance of cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +305 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +130 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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