Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Housing Data, Declining US Covid Cases, Bargain-Hunting, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.8 -7.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,556.0 +84.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.16 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.97 -.22%.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.67 +1.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 111.0  +6.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .91 -18.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -31.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.18 -1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 390.69 -.38%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.29 -1.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.04 -5.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.19 -1.47%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 37.13 -.35%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 10.5 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.5 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.52 +.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 111.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.5 +9.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.5 -1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.4 -.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 294 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -20/100K people
  • 55% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -4.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +61 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -442 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -48 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical sector longs,
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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