Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Tax Hike Fears, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.6 -47%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,005.0 +87.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.40 -.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.44 -.6%.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.0 -.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0  -4.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .86 -5.5%
  • NYSE Arms .84 -42.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.29 -1.25%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 381.28 -1.53%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.10 +.43%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 100.0 +1.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.99 +2.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 152.93 -.86%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.1 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 8.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 -.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.11 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 108.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 112.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.7 +6.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.9 +2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.7 -7.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 332 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -46/100K people
  • 62% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -9.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -111 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +71 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/industrial/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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