Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Labor/Product Shortage Concerns, Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Oil Decline, Road & Rail/Pharma Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.8 +4.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,926.0 -46.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.0 -.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.35%.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.1 -2.5%

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0  -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -9.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 -19.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.71 -.18%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 399.50 +1.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.38 -.99%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.03 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 153.65 +.16%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.30 -.19%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.5 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.08 +.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 112.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.5 +1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.8 -7.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.1 -.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
• 98.3% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.3% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 327 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -7/100K people
• 61% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -58 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -49 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long