Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.04%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.31% -2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.71%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.68%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.1 -1.0 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.7 +.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.8 -2.5 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(102 of 500 reporting) +7.0% -1.1 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.27 +.14: Growth Rate +14.9% +.1, P/E 21.3 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +43.8%
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 335.31 +.36: Growth Rate +25.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.6 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .72 +2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -24.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 58.0% +.4 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.6%(+5.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 53.4%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +113 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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