Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.18%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 107.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -45.5 +2.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.4 +.5 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.8 -6.0 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(28 of 500 reporting) +12.9% +4.1 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.50 +.24: Growth Rate +14.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.81% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.28 +.47: Growth Rate +23.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 36.0 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +4.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .90 +8.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -22.5 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.02% +2.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.1% +.8 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 89.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 61.0%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +30 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -110 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +138 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/biotech/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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