Monday, July 15, 2024

Stocks Modestly Higher into Close on Trump Poll Surge, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -45.5 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.4 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.8 -6.0 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(28 of 500 reporting) +12.9% +4.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.50 +.24:  Growth Rate +14.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.81% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.28 +.47: Growth Rate +23.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 36.0 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .90 +8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -22.5 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.02% +2.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.1% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 89.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 61.0%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +30 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -110 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +138 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/biotech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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