Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.06%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.17%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -35.0 +.6 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.0 +.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +1.3 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(70 of 500 reporting) +8.9% +1.7 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.60 +.06: Growth Rate +14.6% +.1, P/E 21.1 -.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +43.8%
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.18 +.08: Growth Rate +23.8% unch., P/E 34.2 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +9.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .79 -2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -27.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 59.6% -.9 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.5%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 57.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -21 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -110 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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