Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.15%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.9 +5.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.4 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.5 -1.5 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(44 of 500 reporting) +8.5% -3.7 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.68 +.01: Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.4 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.61 +.13: Growth Rate +24.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.5 -1.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 unch.
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .86 -6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% +71.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.5% -.7 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.5%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 59.9%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -857 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +132 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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