Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.09 -.34%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.34% +1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.75 USD/Metric Tonne-.7%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.7 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.1 +.8 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.7 -.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.2 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(60 of 500 reporting) +7.2% -1.3 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.54 -.14: Growth Rate +14.5% -.1, P/E 21.2 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% -4.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.10 -.51: Growth Rate +23.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 34.2 -.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 -19.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .81 -5.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve -27.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.5% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 93.5%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 54.4%(-6.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -21 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -110 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
No comments:
Post a Comment