Friday, May 09, 2025

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Global Trade Deal Jitters, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Consumer Discretionary/Biotech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.97 -.01% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.36% -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.28%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.6 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.8 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.6 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.4 +2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +12.3% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.99 +.18:  Growth Rate +11.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.32% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.90 +.44: Growth Rate +22.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.1 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .05 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.11 +11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 9.5 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 49.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.6% -.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.13 +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 51.1% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 43.1%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +12 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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