Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Global Trade Deal Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, FOMC Commentary, Alt Energy/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.11% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.9 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.8 +3.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +1.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(419 of 500 reporting) +12.3% +.6 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.92 -.10:  Growth Rate +11.9% unch., P/E 20.4 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.33% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 424.05 +.25: Growth Rate +22.6% unch., P/E 29.7 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.13 -9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.08 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.0 -.6
  • US Yield Curve 47.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.3% +.5 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.08 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 75.3% (+6.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 54.9%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -79 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +148 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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