Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• OMB Director @russvought predicts “we will have a MUCH SMALLER bureaucracy” soon: “You pushed us on this and I think the President & Elon have spent a TON of time thinking about this. I think that will be one of the biggest stories, the extent to which the fork in the road has fundamentally changed the reality on the ground.” (video)
• Harvard actually wrote a plan to increase the proportion of women and minorities in certain occupations to more than 90%. It's not about equal opportunity—it's about punishing whites, men, and, especially, white men. Wow. (pic)
• It's hard to imagine a person NOT wanting his/her own personal humanoid robot and there are over 8B people on Earth today. It's also hard to imagine a business NOT wanting its own humanoid robot doing useful things and there are over 360M business on Earth today. This is what Elon means when he says Optimus is going to be 10X bigger than the next biggest product. If you are a $TSLA investor, each share you own is a never expiring call option into this future.
  

• @ZeroHedge

• Chinese Exporters Unleash Armada Of Shipments For The US, And Here's A New Way To Track It.
• *DICK'S FOOT LOCKER DEAL COULD BE FINAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY: WSJ.
• "Paying The Price For Failed Leadership": Maryland Hit With Moody's First Credit Downgrade In 50 Years.
• Don't Be A Panican, But Question Government Shenanigans.
• Tyson Responds To Beef Shortage With "Hard" Push Into Chicken Production.
• With Trump Touring Gulf, Iran Offers Huge Nuclear Concession. 
• UnitedHealth Shares Plunge Continues On Reported DoJ Probe For Medicare Fraud.
• "Rogue" Devices Found Hidden In Chinese Solar Panels Could "Destroy The Grid".
• Out Of Chaos, A New World Order.
• Ed Martin Reveals J6 Pipe Bomber Probe Shakeup, Warns DOJ 'Much, Much Worse Than People Think'.
• Supreme Court Set To End Era Of Nationwide Judicial Injunctions. 
• Bonds & Bullion Battered, Stocks Scattered As USA Sovereign Risk Tops Greece, China.

• @MarioNawful

• SCOTT JENNINGS: WE LIVED THROUGH THE BIGGEST COVERUP IN MODERN POLITICAL HISTORY—BIDEN’S DECLINE WAS OBVIOUS. "The idea that we didn’t know about Biden’s decline is outrageous. Video after video, the H.E.R. report—everyone saw it. The fact that Schumer was only worried about optics, not the president’s cognitive state, speaks volumes. The coverup is the greatest scandal in modern American political history." (video)
• EMIR PRESENTS POTUS WITH BALL FROM 2022 FIFA WORLD CUP IN QATAR. Qatar’s Emir handed Trump an official ball from the 2022 FIFA World Cup, symbolically passing the torch (well, ball) to the U.S., host of the 2026 tournament. The exchange marks a diplomatic bridge—fútbol-style—from the Middle East to America’s stadiums, as excitement shifts stateside. (video) 
• TRUMP ON SYRIA’S AL-JOLANI: YOUNG, ATTRACTIVE GUY, TOUGH GUY…REAL SHOT AT HOLDING IT TOGETHER. “I think very good, young, attractive guy, tough guy. You know, strong past, very strong past. Despite his outward image, he's got a real shot at pulling it together.” (video) 
• SEN. MIKE LEE: JUDGES AREN’T PRESIDENTS—COURT MUST STOP THEM FROM BLOCKING EXECUTIVE POWER. “There’s been a deterioration in understanding the difference between a judge and a president. Judges aren’t politicians—they shouldn’t make executive decisions. Too many judges slow things down with injunctions, denying the president part of his presidency. I hope the court clamps down and says: you’re depriving him of his presidency.” (video) 
• FEDERAL NON-DEFENSE OBLIGATIONS DROP 20.5% UNDER DOGE ORDER. Non-defense federal obligations for 2025 are down 20.5% from last year—and the cash outlay curve is about to follow. The driver: Persistent government-wide contract reviews targeting wasteful spending under the DOGE Cost Efficiency Executive Order. Trump’s directive to streamline the federal sprawl is hitting real numbers now, not just headlines. With obligations shrinking before payouts, it’s a sign that cutting through bureaucracy might finally be cheaper than fueling it. Accountability isn’t just a buzzword—it’s starting to dent the federal checkbook. (graph)
• CANCER TECH BETS BIG ON U.S.—THANKS TO TARIFFS. Siemens Healthineers is moving its Varian cancer device production from Mexico to California, and it’s not just for the sunshine. Trump-era tariffs made importing too pricey, so now they’re spending $150 million to build in Palo Alto instead. They’re also flexing with giant supply hubs and a flashy “Experience Center” in North Carolina, because nothing says healthcare like corporate vibes. Bottom line: “Made in America” isn’t just a slogan—it’s a survival strategy. 
• UAE ABOUT TO HOARD HALF A MILLION AI CHIPS A YEAR. The U.S. is this close to letting the UAE import 500,000 of Nvidia’s brain-melting AI chips annually—yes, the same ones tech giants fight over like Pokémon cards. 100K are headed straight to G42, run by Sheikh Tahnoon, who also happens to be the UAE’s national security boss. The rest will go to U.S. companies like Microsoft and Oracle, who might just build massive AI hubs in the desert. If finalized, the Gulf could become AI’s “third pole” after the U.S. and China

• @LauraLoomer

• lol what? You lazy assholes are perpetually on the sidelines. When are you going to CODIFY PRESIDENT TRUMP’S AGENDA? When are you going to IMPEACH ACTIVIST JUDGES? Get your ass off the sidelines and support President Trump!

• @TheTranscript

• Jabil CFO: "So no major fears now. I think there's always going to be changes. There's always going to be puts and takes, but I think we've fended off a big recession, in my view."
• Cisco double beat. CEO: "Cisco once again had strong quarterly results...The momentum we are seeing with AI..." CFO: "Another quarter of solid execution in Q3 drove revenue, margins and EPS above our guidance ranges,”" $CSCO: +3.5% AH.
  

• @LizCrokin

• BREAKING: Cassie Ventura Confirmed Trump Hotel Shooter & Self-Proclaimed Diddy Sex Slave— Who Claims Diddy, Hillary Clinton & Obama Are Part Of Satanic Cabal Trying To Kill Trump — Was One Of Diddy’s Sex Workers! In court today Cassie Ventura identified Johnathan Oddi as one of the sex workers who she was forced to engage in “Freak Off” parties with.

• @RodDMartin

• BREAKING: Trump's $1.2T Qatar Deal - The BIGGEST deal in US-Gulf history. I've got details that'll blow your mind... (thread)

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• BREAKING DHS Secretary Kristi Noem just DESTROYED Democrat Congressman Dan Goldman (NY). "It's got to be EXTREMELY discouraging to be one of your constituents - to see you fight for a terror*st like this, and not fight for them - is EXTREMELY alarming to me." (video)

• @TheStormRedux

• President Trump is flying around the world, working nonstop, making incredible deals with foreign leaders and trying to stabilize the globe with WORLD PEACE… Meanwhile back home, multiple members of Congress are literally sleeping on the job. Truly unbelievable. You can’t hate Congress enough. (pic)

• @Geiger_Capital  

• Wow. RFK Jr. just lost it on Democrats… “Look at our children! They’re the sickest in the world. DeLauro, you said you’ve worked for 20 years to get food dye out. Give me credit: I got it out in 100 days. Let’s work together and have healthy kids in our country for God’s sake.” (video)

• @kylenabecker

• BREAKING: Illinois Gov. Pritzker Issues Executive Order to Block RFK Jr's Autism Investigation. "You’ve got to wonder — what exactly is Gov. Pritzker hiding?"

• @LeadingReport

• BREAKING: Egg prices fell 12.7% in April — the biggest drop since 1984.

• @IanJaeger29 

• Primary Challenges for any Republican Senator that votes against codifying DOGE spending cuts into law. This is ridiculous. (pic)

• @C_3C_3

• The last 15 Presidents. Bills passed by Congress in first 100 days… Trump: 5 Biden: 10 Obama: 14 GW Bush: 7 Clinton: 11 Reagan: 9 Carter: 12 Ford: 15 Nixon: 10 Johnson: 20 Kennedy: 15 Eisenhower: 12 Truman: 55. Unacceptable with majorities in the House and Senate.

• @Libsoftiktok

• New numbers from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics show 800,000 jobs from last year never existed. The Biden admin routinely overestimated jobs and quietly revised them down time and time again… The Biden admin and media lied to our faces. (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis calls on the states to pass term limits for members of Congress by constitutional amendment. “D.C. will never fix itself. Term limits will change the incentives for members of Congress from focusing on reelection to focusing on tangible accomplishments.”

• @catturd2

• If you want to know who the corrupt thieves are in the Republican Senate who are in on the money laundering scam that DOGE has uncovered ... they're not hard to find. (pic)

• @ChrisMartzWX

• CBS News warns that if we don’t stop burning ancient carbon, 25% of Florida will soon be underwater. Oh wait, silly me, this was broadcast 43 years ago. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 -1.0 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 51.5 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.58 +.23%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.98 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.8 -.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.53% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.11%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.