Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.98 +.06%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.53% +7.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.39% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.1 +1.2 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.6 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.8 -.1 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) +12.2% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.34 -.16: Growth Rate +12.1% unch., P/E 21.4 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.33% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.38 +.25: Growth Rate +23.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.25 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.6 unch.
- US Yield Curve 47.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.5% -.1 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.85 +5.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 63.3% (-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 49.6%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -393 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/technology/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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