Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.15%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% +6.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 95.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.2 -6.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +1.2 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -1.9 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(491 of 500 reporting) +12.5% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.84 +.16: Growth Rate +9.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.3 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.26% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +32.5% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 428.44 +.31: Growth Rate +23.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.8 +.2
- US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.8% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.84 +6.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 75.6% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 55.0%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +329 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -120 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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