Economic Gauges:
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +11.1% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.58 +.21: Growth Rate +12.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.9 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 477.95 +.40: Growth Rate +17.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.2 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 -7.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.26 -5.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.1 -.2
- US Yield Curve 54.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.7% +1.5 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 77.6% (-4.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.9%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +450 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/financial/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
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